Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts

Saturday, September 14, 2013

BASICS OF STATISTICS for ADVANCED ALGEBRA STUDENTS

Some of the concepts in your first Statistics test are already part of your mathematical skill set.  You already know, for example, how to calculate average or mean, median, and mode.  These are measures of central tendency.  They tell typical values like (respectively) the score that everyone would have gotten on that test if all points earned had been evenly distributed among the students, the middle of the scores where half of the students got a higher grade and half a lower one, or the most frequent score received.

You probably understand the concept of range - the spread between two values, the difference between the highest score on a test and the lowest.  You may even have drawn box and whiskers diagrams and frequency graphs as long ago as elementary school.

In higher level Algebra courses, we add a few details to make statistical measures and displays even more useful.

Some useful SYMBOLS

 (Pronounced "mew") This Greek letter stands for the POPULATION MEAN.


 (Called "ex bar")  This symbol represents the SAMPLE MEAN.


(Small sigma from the Greek alphabet)  Sigma is the symbol for for POPULATION STANDARD DEVIATION.

The small ess is used to signify the SAMPLE POPULATION STANDARD DEVIATION.



Using the MEDIAN

Median is used to construct a BOX and WHISKERS PLOT.

The middlemost element in a collection tells us where 50% of the subjects or items are higher and 50% lower.  The middle element (median) of the lower half and the middle element (median) of the upper half are the first and third quartiles (Q1 and Q3).



Quartiles divide the data into quarters, so at Q1, 1/4 of the scores are lower, while at Q3, 1/4 are higher.  The difference between Q1 and Q3 is the interquartile range, IQR.  It describes the location of the middle 50% of items in the group and is less influenced by extreme values than some other measures.  In fact, we use the IQR to determine whether values are too far from the central tendency to be worthy of consideration.

Say we want to know how many students are likely to attend the basketball game this weekend.  We’ve kept count of the number of attendees at the past 15 games and the interquartile range is 100.  But last month, there was one game that was attended by 700 fans!  That statistic is  so high, it could throw off measures of central tendency like the mean, so how do we tell for sure if we should count it as the highest value element or something else?

Identifying OUTLIERS

Using the IQR, we can calculate the limits beyond which certain values are too extreme to be of importance.  We call these outliers.

The limit of “reasonable” element values is 1.5 times the IQR either above Q3 or below Q1.

In our basketball game example, we can arbitrarily say that 100 is our mean.  the reasonable upper limit would be 1.5 X 100, or 150 above the Q3 count of 200 (another arbitrary example for demonstration sake), or 350 fans.  That 700 game was definitely an outlier.


On the box and whiskers plot, outliers are marked, maybe by an X but OUTSIDE the whiskers.




The measures forming the box plot (excluding any outliers) are sometimes called the “5 Number Summary.”

Using the MEAN

We’ve been calculating the arithmetic mean (average) since grammar school.  Almost every 5th grader will tell you that to figure out the average, “add ’um all up and divide by the number of ‘um.”  The use of the mean in statistics is yet another example of my guiding principle: you learned everything there is to know in math before you entered middle school.  From then on, we just use those things in new ways. 

So let’s use the mean to figure out how things are distributed around that central tendancy.  Let’s first calculate the VARIANCE by finding the distance of each value from the mean...


 then squaring it to remove the implication of more than or less than the average...



Now divide by the number of items and we have an average of the squares...




In these equations, I've used the symbols for SAMPLE MEAN.  To calculate the POPULATION MEAN, use mu.  Some texts distinguish the Sample Mean from the Population Mean by using n-1 as the denominator in the former.  I've never made that distinction, but check with your text to see what your class requires.

Either Variance equation used gives us a measure of how spread out the items are, but squaring the differences has provided a number that isn’t the same “weight” as the individual items.  To find the STANDARD DEVIATION, we need to undue those squares...

Use this equation for standard deviation when you are able to survey every member of the population.  If a smaller sample is used, errors could effect the standard deviation.  Experience has suggested a modest alteration in the equation in order to gain a more reliable result:



Use this equation for standard deviation when you only tested a sample of the entire population.  This minor alteration in the denominator was suggested after statisticians found that it reduces some of the inaccuracy created when a small sample is used to extrapolate to a full population.

Using Standard Deviation with a Normal Bell-shaped Curve

Given a normal curve (that bell-shaped graph that puts the mean in the middle along with median and mode and tapers off at both ends), we can predict that roughly 68% of the values will fall within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two standard deviations, and almost every value (99%) within 3 standard deviations.






Are you wondering where the percentages came from?  So did I.  It seems that statisticians for many, many years have collected and analyzed data and actually “discovered” that for things that approach a normal curve (like heights of adult males) the 68-95-99 standards are the areas under the curve at points very close to 1-2-3 standard deviations from the mean.  I’m just taking their word for it because I am not willing to do as much arithmetic as it would take to verify the data.  I’m accepting the percents as a postulate.


Using a Z score

When I want to compare two different surveys, like a student’s results on two separate Math tests, it would be handy to have a single measure of comparison.  Here’s where the Z-score comes in handy.  It tells how each score deviates from the mean of that particular test.

A Z-score of -1 is one standard deviation below the mean, while +2 means the grade was 2 standard deviations above.  To calculate the Z-score, find the difference between the score and the mean, and divide by the standard deviation...

These 5 equations are probably more than will be covered in the first Statistics test.  Much of what comes later in the course also relies on equations, so I suggest that you start a note card now, before too much information gets out of control.  




Coming up, we’ll look at correlation coefficient, confidence intervals, and probability indexes.  Go figure!


Monday, August 27, 2012

Getting Ready for AP STATISTICS: LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT

Data can be separated into categories according to what is being measured and what information can be determined from the data.  Different levels of measurement are appropriate for different arithmetic and statistical operations. For example, it makes no sense to find the mean, median, or mode of a list of Social Security numbers.

NOMINAL

The nominal level of measurement is the lowest of the four ways to characterize data because it holds the least potential for instructive analysis. Nominal means "in name only" and nominal data deal with names, categories, or labels -- qualitative groups (see previous post: Getting Ready for AP STATISTICS: VOCABULARY BASICS).

Because data at the nominal level are qualitative, they can't be ordered in a meaningful way, and it makes no sense to calculate things such as the mean or standard deviation.

Examples:
Colors
Yes or no responses to a survey
Favorite class subject
Gender
Makes of cars  

Some number groups can be nominal:  the numbers assigned to marathon runners, for example, are used to identify or name the entrants.

 ORDINAL

The next level is called the ordinal level of measurement. Data at this level CAN be put in some order, but the differences between elements are not meaningful.

Letter grades in your classes are an example of ordinal measurement.  In some schools, a minimum of 94% is required for an A, but another school may count a 90% as an A.  It is not surprising that colleges have difficulty comparing applicants through letter grades alone, or even through class rank.  Both measures tell nothing about the difference between separate elements within a group.

As with the nominal level, data at the ordinal level should not be used in calculations.

Examples:
Movie ratings (G,P-G,PG13,R,NC17)
The Tonight Show’s “TOP 10” of anything
Classroom letter grades
IQ scores

INTERVAL

The third level of measurement is the Interval level.  It deals with data that CAN BE ORDERED, and in which differences between the data DO make sense.  It can be used meaningfully in calculations, but Interval level data DOES NOT HAVE A STARTING POINT.

Temperature for example can be put in increasing or decreasing order and the difference between 20 degrees and 80 degrees makes sense.  Zero degrees, however, does NOT mean a total absence of temperature.  Without a starting point, ratios of element values are meaningless.  An 80 degree day is not four times as hot as a 20 degree day.


Examples:
Temperature
Sea level
A college student's checking account balance (hopefully that's only a joke)

RATIO

The fourth and highest level of measurement is the ratio level where data possess all of the features of the other three levels and also a ZERO VALUE, so it makes sense to compare the ratios of measurements. Phrases such as "four times" and "twice" are meaningful at the ratio level.

Examples:
Monthly precipitation
Any system of measurement (length, weight, distance)




Since organizing data is a constant task in statistics, let's encapsulate characteristics of the four levels of measurement.



Notice that each level of measurement meets the criteria for the previous levels plus one more.

As you get further along in the curriculum, you will be introduced to essential statistical operations.  The level of measurement is an important factor in determining which
computations are viable.  Save the chart below for future reference and check your textbook glossary to reference each of the computations in the left column.


WHAT'S NEXT IN STATISTICS?
Now that we have some background and terminology, we can start developing a statistical survey.  Get a jump start on the classroom by thinking of a study you might want to conduct as a practical application.  Are you in another class (like American Politics during this election year) which would give extra credit for completing the survey?  What is your population?  What sample would be appropriate?  What would you measure?  How would you measure it?  Based on the chart above, what statistical computations would be possible?  Later in the curriculum, we'll investigate the information that can be garnered from the calculations.  For now....have fun!!


                       

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Getting Ready for AP STATISTICS: VOCABULARY BASICS

As you start the study of statistics, you will find topics and equations that you have studied in previous classes.  Mean-median-mode, for example, should quickly bring to mind average-middlemost-most frequent.  Other familiar terms have unique definitions for statistics class.  Meanings aren’t as much “different” as they are more “specific” and carry definite implications. 

What follows is not a complete list, but rather a sampling of the vocabulary with explicit meanings in the course.  There are only 10 here to get you started and a suggestion for continuing to prepare for AP Stats on your own.

Population: The complete set of data elements is termed the population.

Sample: A sample is a portion of a population selected for further analysis.

Parameter: A parameter is a characteristic of the whole population.

Statistic: A statistic is a characteristic of the sample.

                 Notice that the P’s are associated with each other and 
                 the S’s are associated with each other:  
                 Parameter is to Population as Statistic is to Sample

Individual refers to the elements in a set

Variable refers to the characteristics describing individual elements of a set.

Qualitative data are non-numeric or categorical data.

Quantitative data are numeric and can be either Discrete or Continuous.

     Discrete: numeric data that have a finite number of possible values.  When opinion surveys evaluate answers like “Strongly disagree, Disagree, Neither disagree or agree, Agree, Strongly agree, each possible answer is given a discrete numeric value so meaningful statistical computations can be made.  The same information could be gathered through options like “on a scale of 1 to 5...”

Data counts are always discrete: for example, the number of students enrolled in your statistics classes.

     Continuous: numeric data that have infinite possibilities: the set of all counting numbers or the set of all real, rational numbers between 1 and 2.



If you already have your textbook, look at the glossary to find other terms that you've run into before.  Read definitions to identify how these words might be similar and/or different from your past encounters with them. 

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Getting Ready for AP STATISTICS: MEAN-MEDIAN-MODE


MEAN - MEDIAN - MODE

For those of us preparing to earn a 5 on the AP Statistics exam next spring, calculating mean - median - mode should be as natural as eating ice cream on a hot summer’s day.  The measures of central tendency were introduced in upper elementary math classes, but it isn’t until now that the various uses have important implications.  

CALCULATING MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

MEAN is the same as “average”  or “arithmetic mean.”
     Add all of the elements and divide the sum by the number of elements.

MEDIAN is the middlemost.  Think of the middle of the street...that’s the median. 
One very easy way to find the median in a small group is to first put all numbers in ascending order. Then count from the right and left simultaneously until you get to the middle.

If there are an odd number of elements, there will be one in the middle that can’t be matched from both the right and left......the median.

If there are an even number of elements, the median is the AVERAGE of the two in the middle.

MODE is the most frequently appearing element.

USING CENTRAL TENDENCY TO DESCRIBE DATA

In Statistics, these measures are used to describe the “typical” element and the relative usefulness of each is determined by the level of measurement.  (Watch this site for an upcoming blog, "Getting Ready for AP Statistics: Levels of Measurement" and share examples with other followers.)

NOMINAL (entries are categories or qualitative data)......MODE

ORDINAL (qualitative or quantitative data)....................MEDIAN

INTERVAL (quantitative data)
--- Symmetric.............................................................MEAN
--- Skewed.................................................................MEDIAN


RATIO (quantitative data)
--- Symmetric.............................................................MEAN
--- Skewed.................................................................MEDIAN

A MEAN is useful only for interval or ratio data.  It considers all of the elements in the sample and is influenced by outliers.  The mean is pulled toward an extreme.

A MEDIAN is useful for all quantitative data: ordinal, interval, and ratio levels and is not effected by an extreme outlier.

A MODE is the only useful descriptor for nominal measurements.  It can be applied in all levels of measurement but may not exist or be meaningful in all cases.

 MEAN - MEDIAN - MODE ON A FREQUENCY GRAPH
  



USING A CALCULATOR FOR RECORDING MEAN - MEDIAN 

If you're using a TI-84 or similar grapher, check out the "LIST" and "STAT" buttons.  There are options for finding mean and median after listing the elements in a set.  While you're at it, find the owner's manual for the calculator you'll be using in class and look over the directions for inputting a list and calculating various statistical values.

Keep watching this site for more "Previews" of AP Stats, AP Calc, and other classroom courses.  Let's be prepared before school resumes!



Saturday, August 4, 2012

Getting Ready for AP STATISTICS: COMMON GRAPHS

Statistics is the collection and analysis of data for the purpose of discovering trends, formulating conclusions, and making predictions.  Sometimes "picturing" the data can be useful in explaining relationships.  Several forms of visual display are taught in math classes that come before a formal Statistics class.  


Charts and graphs are used to display specific data, categories, trends, and other visualizations which may make it easier to understand statistical measurements.  The advantages and disadvantages of each display determine the best use for each.

EXAMPLE #1

 

HISTOGRAM 

Individual data points are collected into categories which are represented in adjacent bars.
Advantages:  Visually strong
                      Can compare to normal curve
                      Usually vertical axis is a frequency count of items in a category
Disadvantages:  Cannot read exact values because data is grouped into categories
                           More difficult to compare two data sets
                           Use only with continuous data

EXAMPLE #2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BAR CHART

Similar to Histogram but individual data points are represented in each bar, avoiding disadvantage of not being able to distinguish exact values.

EXAMPLE #3

LINE GRAPH

Plots continuous data as points and joins them with a line.  Multiple data sets can be graphed together with separate sets identified in a key.
Advantages:  Can compare multiple
                      continuous data sets
                      Interim data can be inferred
                      from graph line
Disadvantages:  Data must be continuous

EXAMPLE #4

 

FREQUENCY POLYGON 

Made by coloring in the area below a line graph.  From a histogram, construct the polygon by connecting midpoints of each column.
Advantages:  Attractive display
Disadvantages:  Ends may imply zero as
                           data points
                           Use only with continuous
                           data

 

 

EXAMPLE #5

SCATTER PLOT (DOT PLOT)

Displays the relationship between two factors of the experiment.  A line of best fit is used to indicate positive, negative, or lack of correlation.
Advantages:  Trends are easy
                      to see in
                      Shows exact
                      values and entire
                      sample set
                      Shows min, max,
                      and outliers
Disadvantages: Both data sets
                          must be
                          continuous

EXAMPLE #6



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STEM AND LEAF DISPLAY

Data displayed in rows which can easily be converted to histograms or frequency graphs.  If rows become too long,  left column entries may be repeated.  Strings are most useful if entries are in numeric order.
Advantages:  Precise data list
                      Easily identify min, max, gaps, clusters,
                      and outliers
 Disadvantages:  Central tendencies difficult to visualize

EXAMPLE #7


BOX AND WHISKERS   (BOX PLOT)

Showing the five standard measures: median, upper and lower quartiles, smallest value, and largest value . Multiple boxplots can be drawn side by side to compare more than one data set. 

Advantages
    Shows 5-point summary and outliers
    Easily compares two or more data sets
    Handles extremely large data sets easily

Disadvantages
    Exact values are lost


EXAMPLE #8

Here's a graph that shows up frequently in calculus problems...




 OGIVE (CUMULATIVE LINE GRAPH)

Displays the total at any given time. The relative slopes from point to point will indicate greater or lesser increases; for example, a steeper slope means a greater increase than a more gradual slope.



For some of these visualizations, like the box and whiskers display or a line of best fit, it is necessary to calculate trends or measures of central tendency.  Can you find the mean? the median? the mode? the first quartile?  the standard deviation?

Definitions and calculations for these and other important principles in Stats will be covered in upcoming blogs.  A little review before school resumes can help get the new term off on the right foot.  Keep watching this sight for tips for AP Stats and other courses.